Great Expectations of COVID-19 Herd Immunity.

There is a common preconception that reaching an estimated herd immunity threshold through vaccination will end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the mathematical models underpinning this estimate make numerous assumptions that may not be met in the real world. The protection afforded by vaccines is imperfect, particularly against asymptomatic infection, which can still result in transmission and propagate pandemic viral spread. Immune responses wane and SARS-COV-2 has the capacity to mutate over time to become more infectious and resistant to vaccine elicited immunity. Human behavior and public health restrictions also vary over time and among different populations, impacting the transmissibility of infection. These ever-changing factors modify the number of secondary cases produced by an infected individual, thereby necessitating constant revision of the herd immunity threshold. Even so, vaccination remains a powerful strategy to slow down the pandemic, save lives, and alleviate the burden on limited health care resources.

Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.

Universal coronavirus vaccines: the time to start is now.

The continued explosive spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) despite aggressive public health measures has triggered an unprecedented international vaccine effort. However, correlates of protection, which can help guide intelligent vaccine design, are not known for SARS-CoV-2. Research on influenza immunity and vaccine development may provide valuable lessons for coronavirus efforts, especially considering similarities in rapid evolutionary potential. The apparent inevitability of future novel coronavirus outbreaks must prompt work on a universal coronavirus vaccine.